This article appears in the following Refugee Survey Quarterly issue: Displacement, Peace Processes and Post-Conflict Peacebuildiing [View the issue table of contents]
Putting Peace to the Vote: Displaced Persons and a Future Referendum on Nagorno-Karabakh
* Patrik Johansson is a doctoral candidate in political science at Umeå University, Sweden. He visited Armenia and Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh, in August and September 2008, with the support of Forskraftstiftelsen Theodor Adelswärds Minne.
 |
Abstract |
|---|
Fifteen years after the war over Nagorno-Karabakh, the conflict remains unresolved, and Azerbaijan remains host to one of the world's largest per capita populations of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Current plans for a settlement of the conflict envision a crucial role for these IDPs, by proposing their return and participation in a referendum to decide the future status of the disputed territory. This article outlines several issues that need to be considered when arranging for such a referendum: what territory will the referendum concern, who will be eligible to vote, what options will voters choose among, and how will the results be determined? These issues arise from previous experiences of peace processes that provided for referenda. In conclusion, the article argues that the referendum be arranged in such a way as to increase uncertainty about the outcome, rather than gearing it towards one that seeks to confirm and legitimize a solution negotiated by governments.